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The campaign for an election that has been by far the most eagerly awaited in Venezuela has officially ended. On Sunday, July 28, Venezuelans will go to the polls to cast their vote to choose the person in charge of leading the country for the next six years.
The road to 28J has not been an easy one and many red flags have been raised to warn about Chavism’s attempts to shape an advantageous election at a time when polls show the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, as the favorite to occupy the Miraflores chair.
Ever since a presidential election was scheduled to be held in Venezuela, the Government has sought to control the results and stay in power by changing the rules of the game and boycotting its opponents.
A few months ago, the organization Freedom in the World, in its report 2024, listed the behavior of authoritarian governments in the presence of electoral events, highlighting that electoral manipulation takes three main forms:
- Control who appears on the ballot.
- Change the electoral rules.
- Using state resources to tilt the playing field in favor of the ruling party.
In the midst of the election campaign, not only were the three forms of manipulation exposed by Freedom in the World noted, but three more were added: repression against dissidence, closure of public space and electoral disinformation.
From ProBox we list the most relevant events that tarnished the road to 28J and reveal the role of Chavismo in the face of the elections in which its political continuity in Venezuela is at stake.
1. Arbitrary detentions
The Penal Forum counted more than 100 arbitrary detentions linked to the opposition electoral campaign of María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia. Just since the campaign formally began (July 4), some 77 supporters and collaborators of the opposition have been detained.
“This constitutes a serious and very clear, very evident indication that a systematic and generalized scheme of restriction is being executed from the power, against the citizenry, because of the specific identity of a group of citizens who identify with the political option proposed by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González”, said lawyer Alfredo Romero, president of the NGO.
2. Digital media blockades
With the beginning of the campaign, the blocking of news websites in Venezuela has resumed. At least 12 digital media were blocked in less than a month, so that Venezuelans without VPN cannot access these independent news portals.
On Monday, July 22, the last massive media blockade occurred. Access to seven portals, including independent media outlets, content verifiers and NGOs were blocked less than a week before the elections.
In total, the NGO Peace Lab has registered 60 pages blocked during its decade of operation, mostly critical and independent media and non-profit organizations.
3. Political disqualifications
Although the greatest political disqualification that stands out in the framework of the Venezuelan presidential election has the face of María Corina Machado, the truth is that throughout the campaign, incumbent officials have been politically disqualified by the Supreme Court of Justice for openly supporting the candidacy of Edmundo González.
On June 20, ten elected Venezuelan mayors were disqualified from holding public office for the next 15 years, a sanction taken by the Office of the Comptroller General of the Republic and immediately enforced by the National Electoral Council (CNE). The measure was taken immediately after these mayors offered public support to the opposition’s consensus candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, in his recent tours.
4. Restrictions on table witnesses
One of the points that the Venezuelan opposition has denounced is the attempt, from the CNE, to avoid or complicate the validation of the table witnesses during the whole electoral process.
On June 22, only five days before the end of the registration of table witnesses for each party, the CNE issued a new provision to accredit them. The regulation implied a significant change: electoral witnesses will have to supervise the process in the voting center where they are registered to vote, which threatens to leave some tables without coverage.
One month later, and five days before the elections, María Corina Machado denounced again obstacles with the table members. The opposition leader denounced that the National Electoral Council (CNE) had not delivered the credentials to the witnesses of the parties of the alliance supporting candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Finally, one day after the denunciation, the credentials were delivered.
5:30pm #AHORA #Zulia | Opposition candidate María Corina Machado denounces that the CNE does not give credentials to the witnesses of the alliance that supports Edmundo González. "They intend that our witnesses do not have the credentials to do their work this Friday 26 at the installation… pic.twitter.com/angnIJVD7W
— El Pitazo (@ElPitazoTV) July 23, 2024
5. Change of polling places abroad
The rector of the National Electoral Council, Aime Nogal Méndez, announced through her X account that several voting centers in diplomatic or consular representations were relocated.
In a message published on Wednesday night, July 24, Nogal listed at least three voting centers relocated to Colombia and Spain, just days before the presidential election.
Important Information for Voters at Voting Centers in Diplomatic or Consular Representations. #EleccionesVE#28J #VOTE pic.twitter.com/GlpDsM7BCM
— Aime Nogal Méndez (@anogal) July 25, 2024
One of the major electoral obstacles has to do with voting abroad. Due to a long list of requirements imposed by the Government for the electoral registration abroad, only 69,211 Venezuelans abroad are eligible to vote -less than in the previous Venezuelan elections, when there were 110,000-. This is a small fraction of the almost eight million Venezuelans who have emigrated from the country.
6. MIPPCI as a campaign front
Political campaigning on social networks is not an electoral crime, however, what is is an electoral crime is the use of State resources to promote a candidate.
From the accounts of the Ministry of Communication and Information (MIPPCI), electoral labels favorable to the figure of Nicolás Maduro have been promoted in a systematic and coordinated manner.
In ProBox’s 2023-2024 report we reveal that, between January and May 2024, MIPPCI has promoted the most electoral trends on Twitter with 63, out of a total of 103 trends about the elections in X, almost all in support of Maduro’s re-election.
7. Attack on María Corina Machado
On Thursday, July 18, María Corina Machado denounced an attack against her and her work team in the city of Barquisimeto, in the state of Lara, where she assured that their vehicles “were vandalized” and their “brake hoses were cut”.
The opposition leader assured that “agents of the regime” followed her caravan from the state of Portuguesa, where she had led a campaign activity in support of the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and “surrounded the urbanization” where they spent the night.
WORLDWIDE ALERT
This morning an attack was committed against me and my team in Barquisimeto, Lara state. Our cars were vandalized and they cut the brake hose.
Agents of the regime followed us from Portuguesa and surrounded the urbanization where we spent the night.
The… pic.twitter.com/D40gXm9lsT— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) July 18, 2024
The denunciation of the attack against María Corina Machado also adds to the persecution that both the opposition leader and the candidate Edmundo González have suffered in social networks. The main attack trends come from Diosdado Cabello and his program El Mazo Dando.
ProBox’s annual report revealed that, so far in 2024, Cabello drove a total of 7 trends against Machado and Gonzalez and 6 trends in support of Maduro, with the opposition being the protagonists of his conversation in the first 5 months of the year.
8. The “bloodbath” threat
With 10 days to go before the presidential elections, Nicolás Maduro warned on Wednesday, July 17 that if the ruling party does not win the elections, the country could fall into a “bloodbath” or civil war.
“On July 28, if you do not want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, a product of the fascists, let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of the people,” Maduro said in a speech he was giving in Caracas.
#World | ‘If they don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath and civil war, let’s guarantee victory’: words of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Expansion at https://t.co/l1e7QwAdYh”>https://t.co/l1e7QwAdYh pic.twitter.com/Jv1u7E5K15
— Red+ Noticias (@RedMasNoticias) July 17, 2024
9. False surveys
In the midst of the electoral campaign, new alleged pollsters have emerged giving Nicolás Maduro as the winner, in contrast to the polls conducted by more consolidated companies in Venezuela, which show a wide difference in favor of Edmundo González Urrutia.
A recent investigation by C-Informa analyzed 14 polling firms and found that six of them, of recent creation and dubious credibility, published 37 public opinion studies that were used in a strategy that seeks to manipulate the electoral climate in Venezuela.
10. Rejection of international observation
The rejection of the Maduro government to international observation of those who take a position in favor of respecting the electoral results is not new. However, the most recent decision of not wanting former Argentinean President Alberto Fernández to enter the country as an international observer surprised more than one.
Fernández announced this Wednesday, July 24, that the government of Nicolás Maduro asked him not to travel to Venezuela to be part of the electoral observers, an invitation officially made to him by the National Electoral Council (CNE).
The reason for the government’s refusal was that they had doubts about his impartiality after Fernandez declared that Maduro should accept the result if Edmundo Gonzalez wins the elections:
“I must clarify that I do not understand such uneasiness. I only said that in a democracy, when the people cast their vote, “he who wins, wins and he who loses, loses”.
As can be seen in the note shown, the National Electoral Council of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela summoned me to participate as a veedor of the election to be held in that country next Sunday.
Yesterday, the Venezuelan national government transmitted to me… pic.twitter.com/MAVkjCwJIS
— Alberto Fernández (@alferdez) July 24, 2024
This happened on the same day that Argentine journalist Jorge Pizarro, who was a special envoy of Radio Rivadavia, part of Grupo Alpha, was denied entry to Venezuela to cover the presidential elections in the country.
This Friday, July 26, Nicolás Maduro also ordered former presidents Mireya Moscoso (Panama), Vicente Fox (Mexico), Miguel Ángel Rodríguez (Costa Rica) and Tuto Quiroga (Bolivia), who were on a flight to Caracas as electoral observers, departing from Panama, to get off the plane.
Despite all the obstacles, elections will be held on Sunday July 28th
Although the country is part of the list of nations with the least freedoms in the region, Freedom House highlights in its 2024 report the fact that last year 2.3 million Venezuelans voted in an independently organized opposition primary, which, in its opinion, demonstrates the determination of Venezuelans to reverse the authoritarian rule of current President Nicolás Maduro through democratic means.
