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The Cuban people are facing one of the worst crises they have experienced in the last 30 years. Food and medicine shortages are alarming and inflation on the island, which is expected to close 2024 at around 25%, is making matters worse. As if that were not enough, general blackouts are becoming more and more common. The last one on December 4, which left the island without electricity for an entire day, was a reminder that things are still bad and that there is no improvement in the short term. This was the third total disconnection in less than two months.
In this situation, the regime’s narrative is maintained. The blame for the crisis falls on external agents, while any kind of protest is not only disqualified, but also repressed.
In November alone, the Cuban Observatory of Conflicts (OCC) reported 792 protests in Cuba, a month marked by the severe energy crisis and the damage caused on the island by hurricanes Oscar and Rafael. Power outages motivated at least 201 of these protests for lack of services and led to the arrest of at least 25 people.
However, the protest was not only in the streets. Social networks have been a space used by Cuban citizens to raise their voices and break the limits of censorship.
The repression that accompanies the protest
So far this year, Justice 11J has been able to document 248 protests in public space, some of which have been significant, as has been the repression that has accompanied them.
At least 62 people have been arrested in the framework of the demonstrations in 2024, of which 54 are detained, six of them women. A total of 27 citizens were arrested in the protests following the collapse of the national energy system that left the entire country in darkness on October 18 due to a breakdown.
In fact, Prisoners Defenders denounced that the arrests in protests over blackouts in Cuba shot up the number of political prisoners in November to 1,148, 30 more than the 1,117 registered in its October report. Regarding arrests in demonstrations, Cubalex recorded 44 in November alone: 23 people remain imprisoned.
However, repression in Cuba is not only generated by street protests. The regime also persecutes and criminalizes protest on social networks. It has even punished Cubans for their publications in private groups.
This year, Cuban Aroni García was sentenced to a year and a half in prison for posting a meme on Facebook with images of Miguel Díaz-Canel, Raúl Castro and Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz.
Garcia’s is not an isolated case. Oppositionist José Manuel Barreiro Rouco faces a request for two and a half years of imprisonment for sharing memes about Miguel Díaz-Canel, Fidel Castro and Raúl Castro in a family WhatsApp group of 11 people, and for an alleged illegal sale of dollars.
At present, several Cubans are serving time in prison for their publications on social networks. Among them is also 22-year-old Sulmira Martínez, who could spend ten years in prison for urging Cubans to protest in the streets against the regime.
In these cases, the crimes of which those who use social networks to express their discontent with the Cuban government are accused are: enemy propaganda, crimes against the constitutional order and “other acts against the security of the State”. The convictions are based on laws and decrees that the Cuban regime has created to give a legal framework to the violation of human rights on the island.
In September 2021, two months after the anti-government protests, the regime approved Decree-Law 35 and the Cybersecurity Law, to limit the exercise of freedom of expression on the internet in Cuba. Two years earlier, in July 2019, Decree-Law 370, known as the Azote Law, under which dozens of citizens have been fined, was approved on the island
However, despite the rules that the regime has to punish those who denounce the reality of Cuba in social networks and at the same time uses them to criminalize dissent, people do not stop protesting on the Internet. An investigation by Cubadata shows this.
“The year 2022 showed a significant increase of almost 23% in the intention to protest among Cubans. That increase stagnated in 2023; however, despite the persistence of fear in the population, the tendency to civil protest in Cuba remains high, with three out of four Cubans indicating their intention to participate,” said Aristides Vara-Horna, a specialist in statistical analysis.
The conversation arises on Facebook
In view of the worsening of the general crisis in Cuba, ProBox conducted an investigation to contrast the opinion of citizens on the matter and their complaints on social networks.
A large part of the research was focused on the conversation on Facebook, demonstrating the relevance of this social network on the island for citizens to tell their reality.
ProBox conducted a social listening study using keywords such as: “Food Shortage”, “Medicine Shortage”, “Food Purchase on Facebook”, “Medicine Sales”, “Product Exchange”, “Food Crisis”, “Health Crisis”, “Foreign Exchange Trading”, “Supply Problems”, “Hunger”, “Digital Pharmacy”, among others.
Between October 16 and November 14, 244 mentions were found on Facebook about these keywords, highlighting in the publications: Cuban people (with 20 mentions), economic crisis (with 12), worst crisis (with 10) and medicines inflation (with 8). Also noteworthy is the use of tags such as: #SOSCuba (with 10 mentions), #CubaEstadoFallido (with 5), #CrisisEnCuba (with 4) and #CubaEsUnaDictadura (with 4).
These mentions come mainly from citizen organizations such as the Cuban American National Foundation, which have described the current situation on the island as a “failed state”, especially due to the increase in hunger, repression and censorship of independent media. Likewise, users denounce that the tourist situation of the country does not reflect the reality of the people. Both publications used the hashtags #CubaEstadoFallido and #CubaesUnaDictadura to make the denunciations visible.
The “failed state” that is talked about in social networks is reflected in numbers. Extreme poverty escalated in Cuba to 89% of the population during 2024, with the worsening of the humanitarian crisis suffered by the island, according to data from the VII study “The State of Social Rights in Cuba”, published in July by the Cuban Observatory for Human Rights (OCDH).
Twelve percent of those consulted by the OCDH declared themselves unemployed; of these, 69% have been out of work for more than a year. Likewise, seven out of ten Cubans have stopped eating breakfast, lunch or dinner due to lack of money or food shortages. Only 15% of those surveyed have been able to eat three meals a day without interruption. In this regard, 72% of those surveyed considered that the main national problem is the food crisis.
One of the most prominent pages within this Facebook conversation was “La Tijera,” which describes itself as an “independent media outlet” and has at least 158,000 followers. ProBox found at least 22 mentions in the context of this search coming from this space, from protest publications highlighting the need of the Cuban people in the face of hunger and lack of medicines, to the conditions in which they find themselves in the face of increasing blackouts on the island.
In addition, members of the State blamed are for living in completely opposite situations: while Cubans deal with power cuts “the dictatorship and its accomplices are in air conditioning, with lighting, with breakfast, lunch and snacks, celebrating the Tenth Congress of the Officialist Union of Writers and Artists of Castroism (UNEAC), those in charge of lying, misinforming, censoring art and news”.
The terms “economic crisis” and “worst crisis” are often repeated in the publications of independent media and some users who claim that Cuba “is going through its worst economic crisis in the last 30 years”. An example of this can be found on the Facebook page of the Paraguayan media Nako Ayolas, which highlights the protests that have been taking place in Cuba recently due to the shortage of food, medicines and the economic crisis. This is also pointed out by Uruguay’s Canal Doce Melo on Facebook along with the analysis of inflation on the island. Other Uruguayan media such as Causa Abierta also made publications on the subject and “the role of uncontrolled inflation” in the framework of the Cuban economic crisis.
Independent Cuban media also appeared in the Facebook mentions found by ProBox, such as a publication by Diario de Cuba with testimonies of children in Havana affected by food and medicine shortages; and one by El Toque on the worsening shortages of different items and the energy crisis in the country.
The food shortage situation for children in Cuba is complex. At the end of last February, the Díaz-Canel regime requested, for the first time, assistance from the World Food Program (WFP), due to the inability to deliver milk to children under seven years of age and chronically ill people. However, the Government admitted in the December sessions of the National Assembly that it continues to have problems: deputies admit that milk products for children between seven and 13 years of age have not been delivered.
In informal markets, where more than 90% of food products are imported and are mostly marketed through MSMEs, the price of a kilogram of powdered milk ranges between 2,000 and 2,500 pesos. It should be noted that the minimum wage on the island is around 2,100 pesos per month, while the minimum retirement checkbook does not exceed 1,500 pesos per month, so buying a kilogram of milk has become a luxury for families in Cuba , plunged into extreme poverty.
Solidarity initiatives in social networks arise in the midst of the food crisis and also reflect the miseries suffered by Cubans and the work of independent civil society to alleviate them. The work of the Huellas Project y Aliento de Vida is a sample of this.
Beyond Facebook, the protest continues
The Cuban crisis continues to worsen, especially with the national blackout that affected the entire country between October 18 and 22 and was repeated on several occasions in November with the passage of Hurricane Rafael, maintaining to date the prolonged power outages in the country reaching up to 72 continuous hours.
For this reason, the second stage of ProBox’s research consisted of an expanded keyword search not only on Facebook, but also on X, Instagram and TikTok between May 19 and November 19, 2024, analyzing the last six months. This search included words such as: “Service failures”, “Energy crisis”, “Prolonged blackouts”, “Gasoline shortage”, “Blackout protests”, “Basic services crisis”, “Alternative supply”, “Cuban Telecommunications Company”, “ETECSA”, “Unión Eléctrica de Cuba”. among others.
As a result, 6,238 mentions were obtained, highlighting mainly the conversation around hunger and shortages in various items. There were also several peaks of activity where these issues were more relevant, the most important being September 3 with 246 mentions.
Of the six months analyzed, in addition to September 3, the following stand out in chronological order:
- June 14 with 222 mentions, keeping the conversation going until June 20.
- July 20 with 92 mentions.
- August 19 with 106 mentions.
- From September 3 to September 20. highest range of network activity around the topic with 2,640 mentions overall.
- October 20 with 206 mentions.
- November 18 with 158 mentions.
One of the highlights of this second ProBox search is that most of the conversation was recorded on X (formerly Twitter) with 95% of the total mentions (5,928), followed by Facebook, Instagram and TikTok.
Among the most outstanding words were: Cuba Venezuela (with 557 mentions), Cuban people (with 116), Cuba Nicaragua (with 106), Cuba misery (with 94), people die (with 83), people die (with 70), Cuba dictatorship (with 42), Cuba dying (with 35), misery repression (with 32), political prisoners (with 32), among others; As well as the hashtag #SOSCuba (with 41 mentions) and #CubaEstadoFallido (with 33).
The mentions that include Venezuela and Nicaragua are from users comparing the Cuban situation with that of these countries in the region, as well as speaking of the three countries as a group as “synonymous with hunger, poverty and dictatorship”.
(Link to examples: 1, 2 and 3).
Mentions linked to the “Cuban people” are also used in the context of publications highlighting the increase in hunger on the island, both in user posts on X, as well as on independent media pages on Facebook such as CubaNet Noticias.
In the case of TikTok, ProBox found posts from citizens denouncing the misery in which they live in Cuba, especially in the context of power failures. Some even share statements from members of the state acknowledging that they have no solutions for the long power outages. The account “This is Cuba” particularly stood out on this platform with a video that has more than 78,000 views and 3,516 “likes”, denouncing the total collapse of public services in the country and how the State has destroyed the island in the last 65 years.
Hunger is strongly denounced in social networks. Publications with mentions of “people die” or “people die” come mainly from users criticizing the Cuban regime, as well as in interviews with journalists such as Yoel Acosta, denouncing that “many people in Cuba are starving to death”. On TikTok there are also posts from users highlighting hunger and destruction, while on Instagram some posts were found from users asking for help because of blackouts, hunger, lack of supplies and fear of repression.
Electrical faults: the issue that is gaining momentum
ProBox found 899 mentions on Facebook between May 18 and November 17 talking specifically about electricity and telecommunications failures in Cuba; with other keywords such as: national blackout, lack of electricity, Unión Eléctrica de Cuba, Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba, ETECSA, prolonged blackouts, energy crisis, blackout protests, among others.
Between October 18 and 22 is the highest peak of conversation, coinciding with one of the first national blackouts on the island and continuing until November, as they continue to experience prolonged outages throughout the national territory.
In the context of this conversation, words such as hurricane Oscar (with 73 mentions), hurricane Rafael (with 70), energy crisis (with 61), hurricane passage (with 51), among others, stand out.
The passage of Hurricane Oscar and Hurricane Rafael through Cuba further compromised the island’s services, however, the conversation around the subject was mixed; in addition to citizen complaints, official propaganda was also identified.
On the one hand, Canal Caribe highlights that in Cuba “the recovery work is not stopping” for the affected basic services, according to Yaliel Cobo Calvo, member of the National Bureau of the Union of Young Communists, and Sergio José Díaz García, secretary of the UJC of ETECSA. There are also publications from the Cuban Telecommunications Company (ETECSA) on the work to reestablish services and from other media such as Radio Guantánamo citing the Provincial Defense Council for the progress in the recovery of basic services.
Facebook pages such as the Cuban American National Foundation and Cubita NOW, show the reality of citizen protests in the areas affected by the hurricanes; highlighting the case of a Cuban mother in Baracoa who protested for lack of electricity and food. Other media such as “Novedades Sonora” report on the worsening of the energy crisis.
In the same vein, several media published on their Facebook pages that Cuba is going through the worst energy crisis in recent years, as well as the increase in blackouts after the hurricanes and how citizens had to resort to the use of coal, despite the fact that it costs the same as an average monthly salary in the country.
The regime’s position of blaming the blockade for the blackouts is evident in networks, where the use of words such as “provocado bloqueo” (in 30 publications), “bloqueo incesante” (in 29), “culpa bloqueo” (in 15) and “bloqueo económico” (in 12 publications) stand out.
They highlight a series of publications made by 8 accounts in X that used exactly the same text to ensure that the blackout had been caused by the “incessant blockade by the US”, also using as a source of information an article from the proxy media of the Venezuelan regime, Venezuela News.
ProBox also found media publications quoting Díaz-Canel blaming the United States for the blackout due to the tightening of the blockade, as well as pro-government troops on X using tags such as #BloqueoGenocida and #TumbaElBloqueo in the context of publications on the collapse of the electricity system on the island and a publication by a Municipal Prosecutor’s Office celebrating the work to restore the electricity system despite “the suffocating conditions generated by the blockade”.
Undoubtedly, the discomfort of Cubans about the blackouts and the lack of confidence in the authorities to solve the energy chaos are very well reflected in the comments that citizens pour every day in the parts of the Electrical Union (UNE) in their social networks, especially Facebook. “If Canel had a shred of shame left, he and his entire government would resign”, reads one of them.
What the regime says in this regard
The Cuban government has had to recognize that the island is in crisis, although the discourse continues to be that the sanctions are to blame.
In mid-February, the Minister of Domestic Trade, Betsy Díaz Velázquez, acknowledged that domestic milk production was insufficient and that they were facing problems importing the necessary milk, so that the State could not meet the demand of “more than 2,000 tons” of milk per month for children under seven years of age and people with special diets.
The Minister of the Food Industry, Alberto López, also pointed out that the lack of fuel caused a decrease in food production.
For his part, Díaz-Canel in October blamed the U.S. for the general blackout in Cuba, pointing out that the situation was a “further demonstration of all the problems caused by the blockade, and of the impacts of the blockade”.
However, the situation in Cuba is so serious that the international community is already supporting citizens on the island. The European Union (EU) approved an additional 2.7 million euros to support recovery in Cuba following Hurricane Rafael and two recent earthquakes. Previously, the EU had sent 400,000 euros for food and medical assistance to mitigate the effects of Hurricane Oscar, which caused extensive damage in eastern Cuba in mid-October, especially in Guantanamo.
On the other hand, the Cuban government received on Sunday, November 24, humanitarian aid from Brazil with ten tons of dehydrated food. The shipment was in addition to 30 water purification units donated by the allied government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. According to the Brazilian ambassador in Havana, Christian Vargas, another shipment will soon arrive with kits for the installation of solar panels and medicines.
Despite the donations, Cuban victims have little hope of real benefits from the millions of dollars in aid the government is receiving. At the end of October, the regime announced that thousands of Cubans who lost everything and others who suffered huge losses after Oscar will have to assume 50% of the cost of mattresses and construction materials to raise or repair their damaged homes. In early December, the Government admitted that it is selling mattresses to the victims of Hurricane Oscar.donated
In the face of this harsh situation that the island is going through, and despite the repression, citizens in Cuba do not leave the protest aside, both in the streets and in social networks.
