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The socio-political situation in Nicaragua in 2023 and 2024 was marked by intensified state repression, growing international isolation and a serious erosion of human rights. The regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo dedicated itself to promoting new measures that consolidated its control over the country’s institutions in all areas; while activists, non-governmental organizations and citizens inside and outside the country continue to denounce the Nicaraguan reality, amid an environment in which fear has become synonymous with the government.
At ProBox we took it upon ourselves to analyze how these events were reflected in the digital conversation, especially the propaganda promoted by the regime in contrast to the citizen conversation, presenting the report “#NicaraguaBajoAsedio: Ortega-Murillo, repression and censorship 2023-2024”.
From 2020 we studied Nicaragua’s digital socio-political conversation, mainly on X, after identifying common patterns of digital authoritarianism with other countries in the region such as Venezuela and Cuba. In 2021 we formalized this study, effectively demonstrating collaboration between the three countries and, from 2023, we included platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and TikTok to our analyses.
Between 2023 and 2024 we registered 190 socio-political trends positioned in X in Nicaragua that accumulated approximately 22,667,453 tweets. In the report “#NicaraguaInCrisis: Ortega-Murillo, repression and censorship 2023-2024”, we present the most relevant data of this conversation, as well as some of the events that marked the last two years in the country and failed to trend or were overshadowed and manipulated by the Ortega-Murillo regime’s propaganda.
Key findings of the report:
- The Ortega-Murillo regime intensified control over society and further restricted the fundamental freedoms of citizens, with more than 3,500 NGOs closed, universities closed and the Catholic Church persecuted.
- The ruling party dominates the digital narrative with the “Sandinista troops”: for every 12 tweets of the regime there is only one protest tweet. And for every 7 officialist trends, a civil society issue manages to position itself in the digital conversation of X in Nicaragua.
- The digital Sandinista troops: it is not official accounts that move the State’s conversation, but groups of organized users that contaminate the debate in networks to simulate popular support.
- #SOSNicaragua was the second most repeated trend in the Nicaraguan digital conversation, ranking at least 8 times. It is surpassed only by the regime’s trend #UnidosEnVictorias, which was positioned at least 10 times throughout 2023.
- In 2024, no socio-political trend was positioned on Nicaraguan issues, but on international narratives.
- Even stricter digital control in 2024: the new Telecommunications Law allows the State to monitor what citizens see, hear and write.
- International digital cooperation: the regime promoted digital propaganda from allied countries such as Venezuela, regardless of whether they were contradictory to its own measures, as happened during Holy Week: while the Nicaraguan regime banned religious celebrations, it promoted Venezuelan trends promoting Catholic faith and celebration, maintaining digital cooperation between the two governments.
- Ortega strengthened its ties with China: the regime deployed a propaganda campaign to reinforce its discourse in favor of the Interoceanic Canal project, signed new cooperation agreements and increased China’s geopolitical influence in the region.
- Russia’s influence in Nicaragua through disinformation: in 2024, webinars were organized by Russian media identified by recurrent disinformation campaigns, Sputnik International News Agency and Radio Sputnik. They were presented as a “master class” on media trends and were directly sponsored by the Ortega-Murillo regime to students of the National Autonomous University of Nicaragua (UNAN) and Casimiro Sotelo, formerly known as Central American University (UCA).
- Independent journalism remains one of the most persecuted sectors: in 2023 and 2024, harassment included arrests, media closures and constant digital surveillance.
- In 2024, the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo intensified its control system through constitutional reforms and repressive laws, intensifying its authoritarian model.
An authoritarian model for the region
ProBox’s report on Nicaragua was presented on Wednesday, January 29 at the online [in Spanish] forum “Ortega-Murillo: Repression and Censorship in #Nicaragua,” which included the participation of Melissa Vida, Latin America editor for Global Voices; María Virginia Marín, founder and executive director of ProBox; and César Santos, researcher for Expediente Público and Expediente Abierto.
During the conversation, specialists in human rights, disinformation, and investigative journalism pointed to Nicaragua as one of the countries in the region with an authoritarian model in which human rights violations have been legalized in recent years.
Global Voices Latin America editor Melissa Vida recalled that since 2018, following large anti-government protests that were severely repressed by the government, more than 5 thousand civil organizations, many of them church-based, have been shut down. “Last year, the threat of imprisonment increased from 10 to 15 years in prison for people who are seen as a danger to national sovereignty and security,” she said.
China hand in hand with Nicaragua
China and Nicaragua are allies. The Ortega Murillo regime has found a political model to replicate in the Asian giant.
Expediente Público’s researcher César Santos stressed that “the one-party model promoted by China weakens the international liberal order and fosters an authoritarian environment, with no commitment to human rights or representative democracy.”
In addition, Santos pointed out that in recent years agreements have been developed between both countries that obey specific interests for each country and “enhance Ortega’s image as a leader who maintains international relations”.
For the director of ProBox, projects such as the interoceanic canal reactivate concerns about socio-environmental damage, such as the forced displacement of indigenous and peasant communities and environmental consequences that may be irreversible.
For the Expediente Público representative, the concerns go beyond environmental issues, since “they could represent a risk to the security of the hemisphere, as they could be used for civil-military purposes.
In this context, Nicaragua should be, in the opinion of the director of ProBox, a struggle for everyone. “What is happening in Nicaragua is important because the democratic setbacks in civil and political rights in the country are copied by the rest of the authoritarian countries in the region and it is necessary to be in solidarity with what is happening,” said Marin.
